Trump is now the GOP and he is already wreaking havoc on the occasion
Numerous political analysts have fixated on Trump’s influence on the party without recognizing his potential for the GOP’s failure in the elections. One data point that has been touted by many is an often-cited Politico / Morning Consult poll conducted last month after Trump was acquitted of impeachment. It found that 54% of Republican voters / Leaner would vote Trump in a major contest if it were held today. The poll also found that 57% of Republican voters / Leaner believed that Trump should play an important role in the further development of the Republican Party.
So, true, it’s mostly Trump’s party now. But if you dive into the crosstabs of this poll, 17% of GOP voters said Trump should only play a minor role, while another 18% wanted him to play no role at all. That’s a decent segment of the Republican electorate, reflecting at least part of the party’s voters who cast a vote for Biden last November while still choosing to vote for GOP candidates. While it’s hard to know exactly how much this slice of the conservative anti-Trump electorate has grown since its cultists stormed the Capitol on Jan. 6, the Politico / Morning Consult poll shows that a sizable slice of the GOP Coalition pissed him off. It’s nowhere near a majority, but it’s more than enough to sink Republicans in general elections that are razor-thin results to determine winners / losers for the foreseeable future.
While Trump won the straw poll at the Conservative Political Action Conference last weekend, he didn’t exactly dominate it. Trump won the poll of potential Republican 2024 candidates by 55% – not sounding confirmation considering how Trumpy shows the leaning of the crowd at this right-wing, conspiratorial conference. But perhaps an even bigger surprise was the fact that only 68% of conference attendees wanted it to run again – suggesting that a decent section of the GOP coalition has concerns about Trump. This is not a dominant starting point for Trump as he has spent most of his tenure with around 90% approval among Republican voters.