Biden’s win in Michigan was fueled by enhancements in nearly each congressional district
Since it’s the lone flip, let’s start with the 11th district, which has been moved from 50-45 Trump to 52-47 Biden. This seat was also awarded by Mitt Romney 52-47 in 2012. This makes it the first district in Romney / Trump / Biden that we have found in the whole country. Large outside groups on both sides spent a ton of money late in the campaign between Stevens and Republican Eric Esshaki, but Biden’s victory helped Stevens win 50-48.
While the Democrats had no problem holding the other five Biden seats, Rep. Dan Kildee’s 5th District was once again competitive at the presidential level. This constituency, which is home to Flint, Saginaw, and Bay City, shrank from 61-38 Obama to 49.8 to 45.5 Clinton. While the Democrats were hoping he would snap back in 2020, Biden won by a nearly identical lead of 4.3 points (this time 51.4 to 47.1). The Republicans of Congress, however, were unable to take advantage of the area’s legal drift. Former MP Tim Kelly and Kildee teased very little beat him handily 54-42.
However, another district that went down the wrong path for Democrats between 2012 and 2016 returned this year. The 9th district in the northern suburbs of Detroit had narrowed from 57-42 Obama to 51-44 Clinton, but Biden carried it with an Obama-like 56-43 lead; Rep. Andy Levin meanwhile won his second term 58-38. Biden also won Rep. Debbie Dingell’s 12th Ward in the 64-34 Ann Arbor area, while he won nearly 80% in both the 13th and 14th counties in the Detroit area, held by Rep. Rashida Tlaib and Representatives, respectively. Brenda Lawrence received the vote.
We’ll move on to the eight Trump seats, starting with the only one to elect a Democrat to the House this year. The 8th district in the Lansing region backed Trump again, but his narrow 50:49 win was a significant decrease from his 51:44 win in 2016. The Democrat Elissa Slotkin turned this seat 51-47 two years ago after a very expensive race and them won by the same margin this year, albeit in a competition that attracted far less outside money.
Biden narrowed the gap in a few other districts, but his improved performance wasn’t enough to take Team Red out of control of one of their seats. The 3rd district in the Grand Rapids area picked Trump 51-47 after backing him by a larger margin of 52-42. However, Republican Peter Meijer won the race for the resignation of Republican libertarian MP Justin Amash von against the Democrat Hillary Scholten 53-47 after an expensive race.
The 6th District in southwest Michigan, meanwhile, backed Trump 51-47, which was also a drop from its 51-43 win in 2016. Seasoned Republican MP Fred Upton ran well ahead of the ticket and again won his 18th tenure 56-40.
Trump carried the remaining five seats held by the GOP in double digits, although his profit margin in particular was weaker than 2016 in all of them. The 1st District of Rep. Jack Bergman in the northern part of the state voted for Trump 58-41 four years after he supported him 58 -37. Meanwhile, Rep. Bill Huizenga’s 2nd Ward on the west coast of Michigan endorsed the top of the 55-43 ticket after handing out 56-38 from Trump the last time. Things were more stable in the 4th, 7th and 10th districts, but Biden’s improved vote share across the board was key to his victory.
The Republicans had complete control of the Michigan restructuring process for the last three rounds, but this time it will be different. In 2018 voters passed an amendment on the state constitution, which creates an independent commission to create new borders for Congress and legislation.