2021 Fantasy Football WR Consistency Ratings: Find Potential Sleepers, Busts in Wide Receiver Rankings

If you play in a head-to-head fantasy football league – and almost all of us do – you know the pain of winning by 60 one week and losing by two the next. Sure, it’s great that your team got this big win, but ultimately, you’d like to trade most of those 60 excess points for just three in the following week. After all, a 2-0 record is better than 1-1, and having consistently solid players is better than a bunch of all-or-nothing guys. No position has more boom-or-bust candidates than WR, which is why the rankings of wide receivers vary so much from year to year and from location to location.

Many factors that are beyond our control play a role in a player’s performance. Injuries can strike at any time, and we know that bad weather conditions and adverse encounters are always a threat. One thing we have a lot to say about is the way we build our teams, and we can try to keep consistency in mind when making decisions during design.

At BigGuyFantasySports.com we’ve spent years trying to help Fantasy Owners be more consistent with our Clutch Report section. There you can determine the “Clutch Factor” (CF) that a player must exceed each week in order to earn a “Clutch Game”. This calculation is based on the number of teams and the rating format. A case in point is an RB in 12 team PPR formats having to collect over 11 Fantasy Points each week to be eligible for a “clutch game”.

2021 PPR FANTASY RANKING:
Quarterback | Run back | Wide-angle receiver | Narrow end | D / ST | Kicker | Highest 200

The consistency rate of a player is known as the “clutch rating” (CR). A very consistent player will register a CR over 70 percent. The best of the best typically have a CR of between 80 and 90 percent.

2021 STANDARD FANTASY RANKING:
Quarterback | Run back | Wide-angle receiver | Narrow end | D / ST | Kicker | Highest 200

Based on previous seasons, we identify players who appear to be undervalued given their overall consistency. They may not be the top scorer, but their ability to avoid bad games is the key to getting wins. On the flip side, we’re also trying to spot potentially overrated players who fit into the boom-or-bust form. Here’s a sneak peek at my top 36 consistency-based rankings for WRs heading into the 2021 season.

FANTASY AUCTION VALUES 2021 (Standard & PPR):
Quarterback | Run back | Wide-angle receiver | Narrow end | D / ST | Kicker | total

2021 Fantasy WR consistency reviews, rankings

rank level Lower level player team
1 WR1 ON Tyreek Hill KC
2 WR1 ON Calvin Ridley ATL
3 WR1 ON Davante Adams GB
4th WR1 ON Stefan Diggs BUF
5 WR1 B. DeAndre Hopkins ARI
6th WR1 B. DK Metcalf SEA
7th WR1 B. Allen Robinson OUTPUT
8th WR1 B. Keenan Allen LAC
9 WR1 B. AJ Brown TEN
10 WR1 B. Terry McLaurin WAS
11 WR1 B. Chris Godwin TB
12 WR1 B. CeeDee lamb THE END
13th WR2 ON Justin Jefferson MINIMUM
14th WR2 ON Mike Evans TB
fifteen WR2 ON Amari Cooper THE END
16 WR2 B. Kenny Golladay NYG
17th WR2 B. Adam Thielen MINIMUM
18th WR2 B. July Jones TEN
19th WR2 B. Robert Woods THE
20th WR2 B. Cooper Coup THE
21 WR2 B. DJ Moore DARE
22nd WR2 B. Diontae Johnson PIT
23 WR2 B. Michael Thomas NO
24 WR2 B. JuJu Smith-Cobbler PIT
25th WR3 ON Tyler Boyd GIN
26 WR3 ON Odell Beckham CLE
27 WR3 ON Jamar Hunt GIN
28 WR3 ON Tyler Lockett SEA
29 WR3 B. Brandon Aiyuk SF
30th WR3 B. Courtland Sutton THE
31 WR3 B. Brandin cooks HOU
32 WR3 B. Jarvis Landry CLE
33 WR3 B. Deebo Samuel SF
34 WR3 B. Tea Higgins GIN
35 WR3 B. John Brown LV
36 WR3 B. Russell Gage ATL

A ranking from WR1A means I expect this receiver to record a CR of 80 percent or higher this year. Four recipients – Tyreek Hill, Calvin Ridley, Davante Adams, and Stefon Diggs – are expected to hit this level right now. In fact, all four have the potential to be above 85 percent of what they all achieved last season. The remaining eight “WR1s” are all classified as WR1Bs. That means I expect their respective CRs to exceed 70 percent. Obviously, the higher-ranking guys like DeAndre Hopkins and DK Metcalf are expected to earn much more than 70 percent CR, but likely not to exceed 80 percent. The lower-rated wide receivers could certainly outperform this mark as well, but the lower ranking means that the likelihood of that is less.

The WR2A receivers have proven to be consistent in the past and should continue to have a CR of 65-70 percent this season. The WR2B tier is a collection of wide receivers that have the potential to earn over 60 percent CR. Michael Thomas is lower than in the past due to his left ankle surgery that is likely to put him out by mid-late October. However, many people pass it on until it becomes available as a WR3, which is a perfect place to grab it and stow it away for the second half of the season.

The WR3 group of A’s and B’s is made up of recipients who I expect to deserve a CR of 50-60 percent. Some are young receivers stepping up from last year, like Brandon Aiyuk and Tee Higgins. Others are veterans who have lost their higher status, such as Jarvis Landry and Brandin Cooks.

Let’s take a look at some of these wide receivers and see which ones are undervalued or overrated based on their current ADPs.

2021 FANTASY SLEEPER:
Quarterback | Run back | Wide-angle receiver | Narrow end | D / ST | Every team

Underrated: Russell Gage, Falcons

Gage is probably nowhere near the top 75 in most rankings – except mine, of course. Gage quietly ended last year with a 71 percent CR over the last seven games. The combination of Calvin Ridley, Gage, and Kyle Pitts will still be fatal. Gage’s current ADP is WR63. So grab it as your WR6 or 7 and you could start it up as your flex any week.

Overrated: Tyler Lockett, Seahawks

Here’s what you get with Lockett: high scores and bad consistency! The last year has been a devastating one for Lockett owners. After a 100 percent CR in his first three games, Lockett had a 38 percent CR in the last 13 games. Amazingly, he finished the year eighth overall. Please do not draw based on total points. He is a good WR3 pick but shouldn’t be relied on for more.

FANTASY TIERS 2021 & STRATEGY DESIGN:
Quarterback | Run back | Wide-angle receiver | Narrow end | D / ST

Consistency is the key to success in fantasy football. Including it in your design day decisions can help avoid up and down seasons. It doesn’t matter if you hit the top 3 in total if you hit 6-8 or even 7-7 in the regular season. So look for people who can take you over the top week after week.

For more consistency reports to help you prepare your draft, visit Amazon and get the award-winning Fantasy Football Consistency Guide 2021. You can also follow me on Twitter @bob_lung.

Don’t miss the Fantasy Football Expo 2021 on Sunday, August 15, 2021 in Canton, Ohio! Visit the Fantasy Football Expo for tickets!

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